North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye is set to go off the board with the top picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he’s not without his valid criticisms that shouldn’t be overlooked. Before we get to that, it’s time to give credit where credit is due.

Maye was the 2022 ACC Player of the Year in her first season as a full-time starter, and was also crowned the conference’s Offensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year. Maye was also named to the All-ACC first team list, breaking Mitchell Trubisky’s school record for passing yards and tying Sam Howell’s mark for touchdown passes in a single season.

As a redshirt sophomore in 2023, Maye’s numbers dropped, in part due to the loss of offensive coordinator Phil Longo to the University of Wisconsin, leading to Chip Lindsey taking the OC reins. Maye also lost receivers Josh Downs (101-1,335-8) and Antoine Green (43-798-7) to the NFL before the season. The fall was not serious: Maye was still named to the second-team All-ACC team. He played two fewer games, but threw an average of just 1.5 fewer passes, averaged almost a full yard more per attempt, threw a touchdown 2.2% less often, and was intercepted 27 passes earlier. All in all, a mixed bag in the air, but Maye scored a rushing touchdown at twice the speed compared to 2022.

Height: 6 feet 4 3/8
Weight: 223 pounds
40 times: 4.6 seconds (unofficial)

Table: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina (2021-23)

*includes postseason/bowl games (Sports Reference statistics)
**player gained an extra year of eligibility due to COVID-19 pandemic

Advantages

• Ideal height and sturdy structure that can withstand hard knocks.
• Dynamic throwing arm that overcomes inconsistent footwork by allowing you to zip throw when off the platform.
• In addition to mobility: he moves well around the pocket and is a dangerous runner beyond the line of scrimmage.
• He’ll turn 22 in August and has untapped potential after just two seasons as a full-time starter.
• Plays with determination under pressure and keeps his eyes on the field; he looks to make plays with his arm instead of immediately running out.
• Not afraid to rely on his arm talent on shots from tight windows.
• Team captain both years as a starter.
• He transitioned well from a shotgun system in 2022 and gained experience in 2023 with more NFL-caliber routes/concepts added to his responsibilities.

Cons

• Erratic footwork and over-reliance on his raw talent – ​​an elite arm is a blessing and a curse for him.
• He sometimes put himself in unnecessary trouble in his pocket by having “happy feet” from pressure that was not yet a threat.
• He may need a little more time to develop as a professional given that this will be his third system in as many years.
• He needs to rely on his eyes more consistently, which isn’t a major issue for him as there are plenty of examples of him finding the hot route under pressure.
• He is overconfident with his arm and puts himself in risky situations; Most of his interceptions could have been avoided by taking advantage of what the defense gives him.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Maye’s jump to professional football could take a year or two longer than most top prospects at the position, and where he lands will have a huge impact on his Year 1 offers.

The current expectation is that he will be taken by Washington at No. 2 or by whichever team has the third pick. Currently, they are the New England Patriots. Minnesota and Denver are eager to land a top quarterback, and the most likely way to do that is by landing the No. 3 spot.

Washington is drafting a quarterback…it’s just a question of which one they value more after Caleb Williams comes off the board. LSU’s Jayden Daniels could easily be the pick over Maye. The coaching staff and talent surrounding Maye in Washington would be stronger than those he would work with as a Patriot. The coaching staff is more experienced and the staff is definitely more impressive. Both Washington and New England reside in tough defensive divisions, which makes that point clearer.

Under the assumption that New England holds, then it comes down to whether the new regime perceives Michigan’s JJ McCarthy as the third-best quarterback pick. There is also a wild card scenario where Minnesota has the ability to trade up to the No. 3 spot to take Maye should Daniels go second. Joining the Vikings would be the ideal scenario for the first-year fantasy draftee, given the proven system and impressive collection of talent in the passing game.

So, in short, Maye is nothing more than a matchup play as a rookie no matter where he goes, and in large part because of his mobility. He looks a bit like Buffalo’s Josh Allen, although he’s about 20 pounds slimmer and an inch shorter, but the comparison is reasonably fair. Long term, with the right quarterbacks in training, Maye has solid QB1 upside by Year 4 at the latest.