For Rishi Sunak, a Prime Minister whose tenure has been dominated by a cost-of-living crisis, this week provided welcome confirmation that the relentless pressure on living standards for two years is easing.

Inflation has fallen back to 3.2 per cent, and is expected to fall – perhaps touching the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target – in the next set of figures released in a few weeks. Meanwhile, average wage growth remained strong at 6 percent.

“In terms of people feeling better, those two aspects are crucial in determining how voters feel,” said a relieved member of Sunak’s inner circle. Yo. The prime minister has also sought to combat accusations that he does not have a long-term vision for Britain, revealing plans for a wide-ranging crackdown on benefit spending after a rise in the number of people out of work due to diseases.

He is expected to return to the world stage next week with a brief trip to Europe, where he will hold meetings with key EU leaders on the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. And if the Rwanda Security Bill finally becomes law on Monday night, as ministers intend, it will be a victory lap designed to win over voters skeptical about the Government’s handling of immigration.

Sunak suffered a blow when the bill stalled in back-and-forth between the Commons and Lords this week, prompting angry claims from allies that Labor had reneged on its promise to stop trying to water it down in Congress. . Upper House so that the will of the deputies prevails.

“Labour has delayed the bill because it only wants to continue using Rwanda as a campaign point in local elections,” said a cabinet minister.

But the problem for the Prime Minister is that none of the gains he makes seem to have any impact on the polls, and the mood in Downing Street is becoming bleaker. One conservative pundit said: “The minute something happens or they think some poll is going to be released, they go into crisis and start saying, ‘What policy can we push?’”

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Sunak himself is said to be increasingly frustrated with his key advisers, many of whom have worked with him since long before he entered No 10. One source said the Prime Minister’s attitude towards his aides had been: ” You said this would work, why doesn’t it work?

Doubts about the future of his leadership have not gone away either, even as the vast majority of MPs remain opposed to any change in leader before the general election. Local elections due in less than a fortnight have long been seen as a turning point for Sunak, but a source involved in talks to oust him suggested an attempted coup could happen at any time, given the anxiety in the game.

“They just need a relatively smooth road to May 2,” the source said. “Every time something unexpected happens, it creates a feeling among parliamentarians, who we know are nervous, of ‘something has to be done here.’”

Liz Truss’s high-profile book tour and Suella Braverman’s appearance at a chaotic far-right conference in Brussels have reopened questions about the ideological future of the Conservative Party. Sunak made a deliberate decision to attack his predecessor at Prime Minister’s Questions, but some MPs were unhappy with the apparent glee with which he undertook the task.

“He is further alienating his colleagues by putting the boot in Liz like he did at PMQs,” warned one former minister. They suggested that the attack was reckless given Sunak’s own weakness, and concluded: “he’s not very good at politics and he doesn’t even try.”

The local election results will be watched closely as a test of whether or not the Conservatives have any chance of improving their terrible popularity ratings in the polls.

Party strategists say they have all but given up on any chance of Andy Street keeping his job as West Midlands mayor (although some polls show him neck-and-neck with Labor rival Richard Parker) and would be happy with a victory in Tees Valley and North Yorkshire. , combined with overall losses of no more than 400 councilors out of the 1,000 standing Conservative incumbents.

A Conservative source who has campaigned for Ben Houchen’s re-election in Tees Valley warned that if he fails, MPs will question the Prime Minister’s future, saying: “If he doesn’t win, there will be very serious questions about whether Rishi Sunak needs to stand down. Houchen is the perfect candidate, so if he can’t win, it shows that we can’t win anywhere.”

Number 10’s plans for the rest of the year are understood to involve fiscal intervention in September, cutting another 2p from national insurance to reinforce the idea that the Conservatives are reducing most people’s tax bills, despite an increase in the general tax burden.

But that is complicated by the prospect that doing so could stoke inflation again, which could put the idea of ​​a summer rather than fall election back into play.

“We could do something about stamp duty, but there is still a risk it will affect inflation,” one minister said. Yo. “When we introduced the stamp duty exemption during the pandemic, it stimulated the housing market more than expected, so we still need to take that into account.

“We have definitely turned a corner, but we still have a little way to go before inflation comes down to its 2 percent target, and remember that food inflation was 5 percent last month. What we want to avoid is holding elections in December, November or October, when the economy starts to grow only for inflation to rise again, so it’s a balancing act.”

No 10 sources will simply say that the plan is still an election in the second half of this year, meaning it could be as early as July. “I really don’t think they know when the election will be,” said one well-placed Whitehall source.

Jeremy Hunt has been telling interviewers that he hopes Election Day will be in October or November. He told Bloomberg TV this week: “The feel-good factor as interest rates start to come down, as people start to feel more disposable income, will be stronger in people’s minds in the early fall as it is now.” “.

One ally suggested these comments could be part of a ploy, saying: “I think No 10 is telling him to keep talking about the autumn election, so leave his options open for a surprise attack by calling it early.”

Another senior government official suggested Sunak should “set the date” for the election to end the constant speculation, saying: “I don’t see any advantage in not doing it.”

Joe Twyman, director of the polling firm Deltapoll, warned that any boost for the Conservatives from an improving economy would likely be small. He said Yo that Labour’s lead on the issue of economic competition had remained stable for nine months: “Despite everything that has been announced, good and bad, from the budget to the autumn statement, through the increase and decrease inflation, nothing has made a statistically significant difference.”

The combination of interest rate cuts and the Rwanda migration plan now underway could help Sunak a little, he said, but not enough to achieve a surprise election victory: “Combined, these things may cause a contraction in the surveys. but that’s what would be expected historically anyway. “We’re talking about rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.”